| November 5 , 2003
CA Merger Boom or Bust
Robbins Research
Coquitlam-A survey of 145 Canadian Alliance Members
between October 31 and November 5, 2003, throughout the Province of British
Columbia including: Surrey, Kelowna, Cecil Lake, Courtenay, Burnaby, Williams
Lake, Richmond, Quesnel, Oliver, Prince George, Aldergrove, Victoria, Parksville,
Salmon Arm, Vernon, New Hazelton, Charlie Lake, North Vancouver, Abbotsford,
Osoyoos, Dawson Creek, Vanderhoof, Hagensborg, McBride, Smithers, Armstrong,
Coquitlam, Penticton, Winfield, Cobble Hill, Burns Lake, Chetwynd, 100 Mile
House, Westbank, Lumby, Merritt, Langley, Mission, Houston, Fort St. John,
Kitimat, Bridesville, Dunster, Grasville, Fort St. James, Pitt Meadows,
Nelson, Kamloops, New Westminster, Lone Butte, Pouce Coupe, Delta, Fraser
Lake, and others. This survey has a margin of error of 2.75%%, 19 times
out of 20 @98% competency.
Question #1
It is your intention to purchase a completely new membership in
the new Conservative Party of Canada?
Yes 36%
No 46%
Undecided 18%
Question #2
In your opinion, would you like to see ex-BC Premier Bill Vander
Zalm become the Leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada?
Yes 30%
No 49%
Undecided 21%
Question #3
If the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservative Parties
merge into the new Conservative Party of Canada, which of the
following two parties would you miss the most (miss as in feel
sentimental about)
Reform 65%
CA 09%
neither 26%
Question #4
In your opinion which of the following political Leaders would
make the best Leader of the new Conservative Party of Canada?
Stephen Harper 34%
Bill Vander Zalm 31%
Peter McKay 08%
None 13%
Undecided 14%
Question #5
Which of the following two BC provincial parties should a new Conservative
Party of Canada align itself with?
BC Reform 59%
BC Liberal 14%
Neither 27%
Undecided 04%
Question #6
Does it puzzle you that both the Canadian Alliance Party and the
BC mainstream media ignore the provincial Reform Party of BC?
Yes 58%
No 29%
Undecided 13%
Question #7
Would you seriously consider voting for Paul Martin?
Yes 33%
No 61%
Undecided 04%
Highlights:
Canadian Alliance Members may vote in favour
of the proposed merger between their party and the Progressive
Conservative Party, but
less than half of ‘decided’ Members intend to purchase
a new membership in the new Conservative Party of Canada.
Canadian Alliance Members have closest kinship to Reform BC, and
feel any new federal amalgamation should align itself with Reform
provincially.
Ex-BC Premier Bill Vander Zalm is a consideration for Leader of
the new Conservative Party of Canada, as support for Stephen Harper
is soft.
One-half of Canadian Alliance Members are puzzled
as to why the Canadian Alliance Party, its MP’s and BC Mainstream media
are ignoring Reform BC. Many respondents who were not puzzled hadn’t
noticed, or don’t pay any attention to what the media has
to say.
Commentary:
There are a number of outstanding messages in this survey.
The first is that the ‘roots’ of the Canadian Alliance
Party belong to Reform.
The second message is that ex-BC Premier Bill
Vander Zalm still has the support of many Reformers. Mr. Vander
Zalm has the ability
to help the Canadian Alliance, so long as he wears the Reform ‘hat’.
To bolster his own political image and salvage his political heritage;
Mr. Vander Zalm must be seen to be out of politics in BC.
BC Reformers, who make up the majority of Canadian
Alliance Members according to this survey, are confused about
the relationship between
the Canadian Alliance, BC media, and Reform BC. This confusion
has not been interpreted as a ‘conspiracy’, but could
be. If the message that the CA or new Conservative Party is seen
to be in bed with any other provincial party in BC other than Reform,
particularly The BC Liberals, who are philosophically opposite
to conservatives, it will be at their own peril.
The reputation of long-time Reform/Alliance
MP’s amongst
some members is not so glowing as they might think. Currently,
the ‘confusion’ amongst voters because of the various
numbers of different parties in the mix, Reform, BC Liberal, Progressive
Conservative, new Conservative and even Unity, is confusing to
most members who are IDEOLOGICALLY REFORM.
There is a correlation between the (64%)respondents
in Question #1 who answered “NO” or “?” to purchasing
a new membership in the new Conservative Party of Canada, and to
the (09%) in Question #3 who said they would ‘miss’ the
Canadian Alliance or would not miss either the Reform or Canadian
Alliance parties.
There is a correlation between the (65%) respondents
in Question #3 who would most ‘miss’ Canadian Alliance
and the (14%)in Question #5 who believes the Canadian Alliance
should align
themselves with the BC Liberals.
This survey reveals without question that few Leaders and elected
representatives are bigger than their party. This is particularly
true in the case of the Canadian Alliance.
Its members are there primarily because of Reform.
This survey reveals that the only federal political Leader in
this province, who is bigger than his party, is Paul Martin. One-third
of Canadian Alliance members are thinking of voting for him.
Glen Robbins
(604) 942-3757
-30-
For
More Information contact:
Ron Gamble, Leader
PO Box 466, Surrey Main Surrey, BC V3T
5B7
Phone: 604-980-7779
E-mail: info@reformbc.net
Web site: www.reformbc.net
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