PRESS RELEASE
| ROBBINS SCE Peace River and The Okanagan OR Coquitlam-A survey of 112 respondents in the BC Provincial constituencies of Peace River North and Peace River South. This survey sampled 62 respondents from each of the two provincial ridings. Respondents were asked who they voted for in the last provincial election and which provincial party they would prefer as their provincial government. This survey was conducted between April 4-7, 2003 and features an error rate of 2.4% 19 times out of 20 @ 98% competency. SURVEY #1. Peace River North and South Question #1 BC Liberal-63% Question #2 Unity BC -09% Highlights: The BC Liberal Party trails the Reform BC Party in these two ridings. MLA Richard Neufeld, a former Reform BC MLA may have secured a cabinet post with the BC Liberals by “crossing the floor” but his seat remains anything but secure. The Reform BC Party is very popular in this region, but will this translate into seats in the legislature in May 2005? The Unity BC Party has doubled its popularity in this region since the last provincial election but appears to have no chance of political success here. Some respondents believe that the “Unity” in Unity Party represents a coming together of religious organizations, and not of political parties. THIS IS REFORM COUNTRY. Commentary: Although it is unclear whether Reform BC has the organization in place to seize upon its apparent popularity in this region before the next provincial general election, there is no doubt that this is Reform BC country. Peace River North and South reflect what appears to be a possible trend in the province towards Reform BC. This could well be because The Canadian Alliance Party of Canada is not satisfying conservative voters in British Columbia. They long for the days of Federal Reform. Initially, it was the transformation of Federal Reform into the Canadian Alliance that made Reform BC lose its popularity (SCE circa 2000). However the failure of the Canadian Alliance to break through Ontario, has federal Reformers (many who were reluctant to go to Canadian Alliance in the first place) looking for a Reform home. If Reform BC builds it they will come.
In this second survey 200 respondents in five constituencies in the Okanagan including Kelowna-Lake Country, Kelowna Mission, Okanagan Vernon, Okanagan Westside, and Pentiction-Okanagan Valley were asked about their support for Federal Liberal leadership candidate Paul Martin, and their support for the BC Liberals UNDER Gordon Campbell. Each of the 200 respondents was pre-qualified in that it was determined that each had voted for either The Canadian Alliance or the Progressive Conservative parties of Canada in the last federal election. This survey was conducted between April 4-5, 2003 and features an error rate of 2.5% 19 times out of 20 @ 98% competency rate. Question #1 Yes-38% Question #2 Yes-32% Highlights MP and federal liberal
leadership candidate Paul Martin is expected
to become the next Prime Minister of Canada
after Jean Chretien retires in early 2004
or before. This survey reveals that the
Okanagan region of British Columbia shows
Commentary: There are elements of the findings, which may come into play in both surveys despite the fact that they are entirely different surveys in context. Paul Martin is popular enough in the Okanagan region for the federal Liberals to be successful in the next federal general election. The thinking amongst respondents appears to be that BC has a better chance in Confederation with a federal Liberal who has apparent fiscal conservative tendencies. Also, with Canadian Alliance support of BC Liberals provincially, how anti-liberal can they really be? With the “re-emergence” of Reform BC on the provincial scene, Canadian Alliance members should probably get re acquainted with Ron Gamble Leader of Reform BC. Glen P. Robbins -30-
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