March 19, 2003

Glenn Robins March, 19 Poll

This is a poll from ROBBINS/SCE research that is lengthy but well worth reading between the lines.
Coquitlam- A survey of 900 respondents in 45 ridings in British Columbia including all ridings in eastern and northern British Columbia, the Fraser Valley, Surrey, the Tri-Cities, Burnaby, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows. Respondents had to have voted in the last provincial election to be eligible for the survey. Respondents were asked their gender, to identify who they voted for in the last provincial election, who they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow, and their opinion of whether or not Premier Gordon Campbell should personally attend his drinking and driving hearing scheduled for Maui, U.S.A. on March 25, 2003.

Question #1
Are you female or male?

Female 54%
Male 46%

Question #2
In the May 2001 provincial election in British Columbia, for which political party did you cast your vote?

BC Liberal 58.5%
NDP 22.5%
Green 9.0%
Unity 5.5%
Other 4.5%

Question #3
If an election were held in British Columbia tomorrow, for which political party would you cast your vote?

Green 9.5%
NDP 27.0%
Unity 8.5%
Reform 13.5%
BC Liberal 38.0%
Other 3.5%

Question #4
Premier Gordon Campbell was charged with drinking and driving on January 10, 2003. His hearing is scheduled for March 25, 2003 in Maui, U.S.A. Premier Campbell has indicated that he will not fly down to Maui to attend this hearing, he will send his lawyer to represent him. Is it your opinion that Premier Campbell should attend personally anyhow?

Yes 63%
No 37%

Highlights:
The Green Party support has stayed the same except for the noteworthy defections of some female supporters from the BC Liberal Party. The PR campaign in the spring (2002) did little to increase public support, however the Green’s may have found a tiny trickle of disgruntled BC Liberal supporters. The BC Liberals had best be careful to what extent they go either directly or indirectly to politically manifest a left wing vote split.

NDP is up over 20% in the eastern and northern areas, and even higher in the Surrey, Burnaby, New Westminster and Tri-City areas.

BC Reformers were not assimilated into Unity BC. This political exercise is a failure. And BC Reformers who supported the BC Liberals in the May 2001 provincial election have now left the BC Liberal Party "and they ain’t going back".

PART 1: Analysis this poll vs. others

Our latest poll once again calls conventional polling of BC political party support into serious question. For instance, a very recent poll by another polling firm placing the Green Party at (19%) directly contradicts the information in this survey (after factoring other statistical considerations).

ROBBINS/SCE Research survey numbers reveal Green Party support at (average) (9%) in the 45 ridings located in the Fraser Valley, Surrey, Tri-Cities, Burnaby, New Westminster, Maple Ridge and all of the Northern and Interior ridings surveyed. In order to achieve 19% as a provincial total, as the other firm would have us believe, The Green Party would require over 30% support in each of the remaining 34 ridings in the province not featured in this survey. Our data from the Northern and Eastern ridings of the province is relatively consistent with the outcome of the last provincial election.

According to the ‘weighted’ survey of the other polling firm, the Green Party has average riding support of 27% in those ridings on Vancouver Island (who form part of the remaining 34 ridings not in this survey).
This would mean that in the 22 ridings not accounted for (after Vancouver Island), Green support would have to be 34%. The Green Party in these ridings (within the City of Vancouver, Richmond, Delta, North and West Vancouver and Powell River, has according to this other polling firm increased its support in the last provincial election from 12.5% average to 34%. What bona fides exist as evidence of the other poll's claim?

This other polling firm also portrays the NDP support at 30% as a province wide total. In our last month’s riding by riding survey of the entire province, ROBBINS/SCE Research has the NDP support at 31%.

We agree on the NDP provincial total. To reconcile the numbers for the NDP in the 45 ridings in this survey (28%) and achieve a 30-31% average for the Province, both the other firm and ROBBINS/SCE Research would have to agree that in the remaining 34 ridings, the NDP has an average of 37% support.

In the 34 ridings NOT surveyed here, we would now have to agree that the NDP average support (37%) and the Green average support (34%){determined earlier} would total (71%). This would only leave the BC Liberals with a range of public support of 26-30%. This would mean that from Vancouver to Vancouver Island the ‘left center’ total political support was also 71% and mean that if an election were held tomorrow, the NDP would win 30 to 32 of the 34 seats we are considering.

However, the other polling firm has the BC Liberals at 50% in the lower mainland. The logic follows that if the Green Party is at 30-34% (as we proved it would have to be) in this area. This leaves approximately 16-20% ‘leftover’ for the NDP party, (if we accept this 50% number). This would mean that according to the other polling firm in the lower mainland, the NDP is even with, or is gradually dropping in support from the disappointing totals it achieved in the provincial election in May 2001, despite the overwhelming victory of Cope during the November 2002 Civic elections in the City of Vancouver.
According to this other polling firm, the NDP is averaging 34% in the interior and the north. This suggests that the NDP has increased its average support in that region by 14% since the last provincial election. This, despite the fact that the NDP has had little if any resources to do its work in Victoria, let alone thousands of miles away in the Northern and Interior ridings of the province.

In order for the other polling firms’ numbers to be declared a fair depiction of party support in the Province of British Columbia, (if it is agreed that the NDP is around 30-31% of public support provincially), certain other assumptions would have to be made.

For the Liberals to be at 44% AND the Green Party to be at 19% (according to the other polling firm), the Green Party support in the Northern and Interior ridings of British Columbia would need to be at nearly 17%, or double the amount of that party’s total in this ROBBINS/SCE Research survey.


Part 2: Supporting evidence

An earlier ROBBINS/SCE Research provincial survey (February 20, 2003) indicated that BC public opinion was 21% uncertain. It also revealed that the BC Liberals were supported "most certainly" by 32% of the public. The Greens were 10% and Unity was 8%. The NDP was 29%. The case was also made in that survey to support the 32% ‘most certain’ determination for the BC Liberals.

There is no evidence that the BC Liberals could expect support of over 40%. The 40% + achieved in the May 1996 provincial election is not natural BC Liberal support. Three or four per cent of that total is BC Reform support, which was grabbed, in the last days of that election. My point is that the ‘natural’ support of the BC Liberals is around 32-37%.

In a separate survey conducted concurrently with this survey, 150 respondents in Northern and Interior regions of British Columbia who voted for EITHER Canadian Alliance or The Progressive Conservative Party in the last FEDERAL election, were asked "which BC provincial political party BEST reflects your values and principles"? The BC provincial party choices provided were Green Party, NDP, BC Liberal, Reform BC, or Unity BC. The respondents chose as follows:

Green Party 1.3%
NDP 0%
BC Liberal 27.3%
Reform BC 46.3%
Unity BC 25.0%
In the last Federal Election 56% of British Columbians voted either Canadian Alliance or Progressive Conservative. According to this group of respondents, 26% of British Columbians are ‘natural’ BC Reformers, 14% ‘natural’ Unity Party supporters, 15% ‘natural’ BC Liberal supporters (provincially) and one per cent is Green Party of BC. Forty per cent of ‘conservative’ British Columbians therefore are either ‘natural’ BC Reformers or Unity Party supporters.

There are 44% of British Columbians who are not ‘conservative’ federally. (This number generally describes the so-called center-left percentage in the province).

If we allocate this amount provincially for the combined NDP (30-31%) and the Green Party (12-13%), than we have nothing leftover to designate to the BC Liberals. We can reasonable hypothesize that the ‘natural’ BC Liberal support is around 15%.

Historically, we have witnessed BC Reform totals in the vicinity of their ‘natural’ support of 26% during the pre-1996 provincial election era. In the year 2000 we witnessed BC Reform support at around 20% levels.

During the provincial election of May 2001, there was further confusion as the Reform Party Leader Bill Vander Zalm stepped down (February 2001). Chris Delaney, BC Reform President at the time, became leader of a new political party Unity BC. Unity attempted to assimilate all so-called center right political parties in the province into one, but was not successful. In the confusion of the last minute change from Reform BC to Unity, prior to the May 2001 provincial election, the Reform BC Party ran into some legal difficulties with Elections BC over apparent over-spending involving the December 1999 Delta South by-election .

In the 2001 provincial election we hypothesize that ‘natural’ BC Reformers ‘held their noses’ and voted for the BC Liberals. This survey indicates that they will not do this again in the next provincial election in BC.

We have discovered that the BC Liberal party is an unnatural coalition. It is not a political replication of the old BC Social Credit party. The BC Social Credit Party evolved into a ‘natural’ coalition. The BC Liberal Party cannot. The BC Liberal party has the ‘liberal’ label that annoys the ‘natural’ conservatives it desperately needs to survive. This uncomfortable coalition of Federal Liberals and Federal Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives is extremely vulnerable and could easily be fractured. Only significant capital and ‘media subsidy’ can keep it stitched together.

New Improved Premier Campbell

As recently as this week, a local secondary publication (weekly) was released with Premier Gordon Campbell’s face on the cover, and an interview with him inside the magazine. Later in the week, a poll was released and a representative with that polling firm declared that his firm believed the BC Liberals had increased in public support owing to his softer image resulting from Premier Campbell’s drinking and driving difficulties.

As part of this overall survey we decided to contact 100 respondents in the Tri-City and Burnaby area. These respondents were pre-qualified and indicated that they possess at least one television, and have used a published schedule from time to time.

1. In the past week have you seen any local magazines with a picture of Gordon Campbell on the front cover?

Yes-6% No-94%

2. Did you in the past seven days read any interview involving Premier Gordon Campbell?

Yes-1% No-99%

3. Have you in the past seven days read, seen, or heard of any polls or surveys which relate specifically to numerical levels of political party support?

Yes-3% No-97%

Only one of the three respondents who answered yes to question number 3 could actually correctly identify any of the numerical polling or survey support for any BC political party. It is our hypothesis that there is no causal connection between the Premier’s recent public relations endeavors and apparent public support. It may be true that Premier Campbell has been forgiven by British Columbians for his drinking and driving carelessness January 10, 2003. However, as our survey(s) have indicated, his recklessness will not be easily forgotten, and if he does not personally attend to the hearing in Maui, he will further hurt both his, and his party’s chances of winning another provincial election.

Glen P. Robbins