PRESS RELEASE
| September 26 , 2003 Assessment of Political Parties in BC
ROBBINS-SCE
Research Coquitlam-A survey of 990 respondents throughout the lower mainland, northern and interior of British Columbia. Margin or error is equal to 3.0% 19 times out of 20 at 98% competency rate. Question #1 In your opinion which of the following five assessments out of a possible 100, with the higher numbers reflecting a better score, best depicts your personal assessment of Gordon Campbell’s BC Liberal government? A 45% received 14% Question #2 In your opinion, which of the following five assessments out of a possible 100, with the higher numbers reflecting a better score, best depicts your personal assessment of the NDP? A 40% received 11% Question #3 If an election were held tomorrow would you be absolutely certain to vote for The Green Party of BC? Yes 09% Question #4 If the BC Liberals and the NDP parties were the only two political parties you were able to vote for in the next provincial election, would you seriously consider spoiling your ballot or not voting at all? Yes 32% Question #5 In the next election to take place in this province will you likely be voting for the Reform Alliance parties? Yes 51% Question #6 If you had to rank the BC Liberals from 1-5 with 1 being the lowest and 5 the highest what number would you give? (1) 44% (2) 7% (3) 37% (4) 7% (5) 2% Question #7 If you had to rank the BC New Democratic Party from 1-5 with 1 being the lowest and 5 the highest, what number would you give? (1) 26% (2) 17 % (3) 37% (4) 16% (5) 4% Question #8 Will you vote for Paul Martin in a Spring 2004 Federal Election? Yes 38% Question #9 In a provincial election will you seriously consider voting for Reform in British Columbia? Yes 46% Question #10 In a Federal Election in Spring 2004 do you look forward to a fourth consecutive Liberal government? No 60% Question #11 In BC during a provincial election are you certain to vote for The Liberals? A Yes, I am certain I will vote for the Liberals in a BC provincial
election. 26% Question #12 Will the issue of vote-splitting influence your BC provincial vote in 2005? Yes 26% Question #13 In BC during a provincial election are you certain to vote for the NDP? A Yes, I am certain to vote NDP in the next BC election. 24% Comentary: Contrary to what polling firms McIntyre Mustel and French firm Ipsos have stated in the past three weeks, our research does not show the BC Liberals at 45% public support. The BC Liberals and NDP are neck and neck at or below 30%. Gordon Campbell and BC Liberals have big political troubles. The largest groups of respondents see them as average or awful. Gordon Campbell has no momentum. The Green Party has a solid 9% of the vote in this survey and Vancouver Island could add them another 1 or 2 percent. Reform in British Columbia is in a good position. Even a few respondents who support BC Liberal and NDP say they will “seriously consider” voting Reform in BC. The Reform Party in British Columbia has obvious name recognition. McIntrye Mustel recongizes this however Ipsos-Reid do not. Ipsos Reid’s numbers of 47% for the BC Liberals in the north and interior of the province possibly includes Reform, which is not on his list of questions. Forty-six per cent of respondents will “seriously consider” voting for Reform. These respondents come from all segments of response. Those respondents who solidly support NDP and BC Liberal (3%) will seriously consider Reform. Does this 3% reflect the extent or the “softness’ of support for both the NDP and BC Liberals, or does it reflect a ‘margin of error” triggered by the “seriously consider” part of the question? In addition, it is more likely respondents particularly those that do not like the NDP or BC Liberals, and who do not “absolutely” support The Green Party, will be the most serious to “consider” Reform. Paul Martin is popular in BC, but he cannot let PM Chrétien hang around until 2004. Both Paul Martin and CA Leader Stephen Harper should avoid Gordon Campbell. Many Paul Martin undecided (particularly seniors) who are not conservative will support Jack Layton if they see Martin with the BC Liberals. Jack Layton has very high “trust” numbers-he is the real wildcard in the field now. Provincial NDPers who support Alliance are less likely to go to Layton, but they won’t rule it out. Reform Alliance parties have the support of 1 out of two respondents. There is not a direct correlation between Reform (provincially) and Reform-Alliance (federally). At least fifteen per cent of respondents in total, who supported Reform-Alliance federally, did not support Reform (provincially), and vice versa. If Paul Martin can woo Christy Clark away from provincial politics where her name is being ruined by association with Gordon Campbell, it will go a long way to solidifying his vote in BC and taking votes away from Jack Layton. (Ms. Clark’s Federal Liberal numbers are 50% vs. James Moore her provincial numbers are under 40). Christy Clark may be worth 5 percentage points to the Federal Liberals in the lower mainland where the Federal Liberals may have a shot at more seats. This survey indicates that fully one-third of the voters in the province will spoil their ballot or not vote in the next election if the NDP and the BC Liberals were the only parties to vote for. Nearly two-thirds of those respondents indicated they would “spoil their ballot”. If one out of five respondents would spoil their ballot, it is extremely unlikely that between them, the BC Liberals and NDP control three out of four voters {BC Liberals (46%); NDP (27%). There are four provincial political parties that are relevant in BC. Liberal, NDP, Green and Reform. The two primary parties, Liberal and NDP are currently going through a “crisis of confidence”. The NDP may or may not have a strong leader emerge from its leadership race, and Gordon Campbell is being “propped up” through media propaganda. The BC Liberals are challenged by Reform. They have approximately 2 votes for each one of Reform. The NDP has approximately 2 votes for each one of Green. Only one in four respondents believe a vote-split is an issue, however that number could increase. It is doubtful that the vote-split card will be easily played by the BC Liberals against Reform in 2005, because this time the BC Liberals had their opportunity to prove themselves and in the eyes of many failed. Sincerely, -30-
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